AMPs are done

[Thorton]

I think 50%-75% of AMPs will not permanently reopen from this shutdown. Besides being a service business you have the added fear of skin to skin contact that will make the percentages higher than a hair salon for example.
What do you think and who won’t reopen?

Been around since the dawn of time. They are not going anywhere..... ever !

 

[bs2000]

I cannot speculate about the percentage of spas which will re-open of close permanently, but there is a market and ALL markets seek efficiency and equilibrium. A good many of the Asian providers have significant savings "under the mattress" here and back home. The Asian propensity to save is geometrically higher than Americans. While the silly ones may waste money on handbags and such, the smart ones have a safe somewhere, filled with cash. I've seen it for myself!

That said, the unpaid commercial leases will lead to some evictions. But the landlords will have no new tenants, so the current spa owners will simply sell their business to a friend or re-incorporate. The property and all furnishings will be at the ready.

As for the mongers, the savvy ones have multiple friends on mobile or WeChat. When restrictions are lifted, arrangements will be made to meet at homes in Flushing, in hotels and casinos, and on "vacations" with the hope of being first on deck. Lots of rested women and horny men will lead to very good days and nights! And then one day, the amps, like the sparrows in San Capistrano, will return!

Yeah, I have seen the wads of cash many times. Already making some OTS arrangements. More relaxed than the spas and for longer times. I suspect many will become and stay indys after they get out of their restricted comfort zones.

 

[charliebrown]

Guys, this is a multi-billion dollar a year business. I will bet that Asian restaurants, nail salons, cleaners and spas will be up and running at full throttle before many other industries. After being shut down for 4 weeks, both provider/customer will have an all new mutual respect for one another.

 

[VJLUTZ]

Guys, this is a multi-billion dollar a year business. I will bet that Asian restaurants, nail salons, cleaners and spas will be up and running at full throttle before many other industries. After being shut down for 4 weeks, both provider/customer will have an all new mutual respect for one another.

Eventually. But someone has to finance them and there is going to be a long line of people competing for that money. I would expect many small biz owners are losing their shirts, including the ones you mentioned.

 

[Tuddles]

The Asians are fully prepared under comment #25 because they have a bank that will help them get finances if they need them to get their businesses running the second their businesses are allowed to open.

 

[bs2000]

The Asians are fully prepared under comment #25 because they have a bank that will help them get finances if they need them to get their businesses running the second their businesses are allowed to open.

Yeah, it is called the Bank of America !!

 

[charliebrown]

Eventually. But someone has to finance them and there is going to be a long line of people competing for that money. I would expect many small biz owners are losing their shirts, including the ones you mentioned.

This is one of the lowest overhead businesses in the world. The pay rent and utilities. There are no benefits.

 

[Tuddles]

Comment #28. Linda in NY did not say which bank. I did not ask. But, she mentioned she went to the bank yesterday to complete the paperwork. She has plans in place while we wait.

 

[VJLUTZ]

This is one of the lowest overhead businesses in the world. The pay rent and utilities. There are no benefits.

Low overhead? Come-on man. You forgot the cost of the water bottles they hand out. And the candies.

Seriously though. I tend to agree for AMPs But the others do have a lot more overhead to varying degrees. Also when this thing ends is going to be a big question mark. Even if it seems to end in the summer, will it return in the winter?

I think the saving grace for at lot of small business might be that everyone is having the same problem at the same time. A landlord can't just get a new tenant until some semblance of certainty returns. And likely for a sustained period of time. So they might be more forgiving for a while.

There may well be a Crazy Rich Asian "bank" that finances these ventures, but they want to make money too.

 

[charliebrown]

Low overhead? Come-on man. You forgot the cost of the water bottles they hand out. And the candies.

Seriously though. I tend to agree for AMPs But the others do have a lot more overhead to varying degrees. Also when this thing ends is going to be a big question mark. Even if it seems to end in the summer, will it return in the winter?

I think the saving grace for at lot of small business might be that everyone is having the same problem at the same time. A landlord can't just get a new tenant until some semblance of certainty returns. And likely for a sustained period of time. So they might be more forgiving for a while.

There may well be a Crazy Rich Asian "bank" that finances these ventures, but they want to make money too.

I think it will be done or we will accept the casualties by May and get back to work.
I think we will practice much better hygiene (desperately needed anyway) and more social distancing/cough and sneeze control.
I think there will be a vaccine next fall for this just like the flu shot.
I think the number of people saved during this quarantine will outnumber the number of deaths but they will not report the deaths per month because we would all look at the number and say what the fuck were we overreacting for.
There are roughly 300K deaths per month in this country +/- a few thousand.
Don't worry, if you are rich, there will be a ventilator for you!!!

 

[Eagles34]

I think 1/3 will be gone for good 6 months from now. Seems like 1/2 already were over the last 10 years due to various reasons. For those in the hobby for a long time you know that it’s been in a continual decline for a long time. It ain’t what it used to be. I don’t see that stopping only getting worse now. Lots of long time providers have been gone for good. Few young girls anymore, its a sad decline.

Maybe in the burbs but there were fast houses and many new spas opening up in Philly before this. I can never predict what happens in certain townships or boroughs and what people and officials will react to.

 

[Jgunzz]

Could there be a return of American girl spas?

I hope not

 

[Martyw]

I think it will be done or we will accept the casualties by May and get back to work.
I think we will practice much better hygiene (desperately needed anyway) and more social distancing/cough and sneeze control.
I think there will be a vaccine next fall for this just like the flu shot.
I think the number of people saved during this quarantine will outnumber the number of deaths but they will not report the deaths per month because we would all look at the number and say what the fuck were we overreacting for.
There are roughly 300K deaths per month in this country +/- a few thousand.
Don't worry, if you are rich, there will be a ventilator for you!!!

Could this be the new norm for new viruses???

 

[asianampman]

Medical professionals I know have been saying since early February this will peak in US around May 1st. 4 now have CV19 and 4 others have symptoms and want to be tested, but test kits are STILL rare commodities, after national leadership was told 4 months ago CV19 would be here. If you have a vacation scheduled before July, cancel now. You will spend hours on the phone waiting to cancel and 3 weeks until the credits hit your account. This will get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better. Be safe my brothers. Hunker down at home, eat, drink, and put up with your mrs as long as possible.

 

[charliebrown]

Could this be the new norm for new viruses???

If the spread quickly and caught the health system to overload it will.
If it is a variant of the flu and the death rate stays at or below 0.1%. It will be business as usual.

PS, if the mortality rate was reversed and it was children dying, I would have bet my ass every government, health official and human being would be doing absolutely everything in their power to contain and control this outbreak.

 

[Jgunzz]

It’s funny that NYC is in the beginning stages of this virus infection and people are already making predictions

 

[horneddog]

Been working at home all month bc I can, now being "detained" bc mrs is a nurse. She cant stay home so is assuming all out of house activity except for dog walking bc of reports men affected worse. If it wasnt for all the nosy neighbors stuck in their houses, I would order a Home Delivery When is life no longer worth living ???

 

[chunfun]

Comment #28. Linda in NY did not say which bank. I did not ask. But, she mentioned she went to the bank yesterday to complete the paperwork. She has plans in place while we wait.

There is at least one Asian-serving bank in NYC that has an enormous following, and great publicity.
https://www.abacusbank.com/
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/12/the-accused-jiayang-fan

There are many others. All with asset quality that exceeds US consumer banks.

 

[Fiercetoken]

Chinese providers are much
more paranoid about the virus than Korean AMPs. You will see a lot of Chinese not return to work for 6-12 months or even return to China. Koreans will be hell ya let’s work.

 

[Versao]

Chinese providers are much
more paranoid about the virus than Korean AMPs. You will see a lot of Chinese not return to work for 6-12 months or even return to China. Koreans will be hell ya let’s work.

Chinese are indeed the most brainwashed among the Asians.