nyc coming back to life or gone as we knew it pre 2020? thoughts?

[HardDom_NYC]

Couple of personal thoughts....but firstly to the poster that said if you don't live in Manhattan then your opinion doesn't count

It's a bit pedantic to discount the thoughts of anyone that doesn't live in Manhattan. Many posters don't live in Manhattan, but offer a wealth of reviews at the various Manhattan-based amps. Including yours truly. If you have a problem with folks that live in the outer boroughs but offer reviews for Manhattan then don't bother reading any reviews and go elsewhere. Last time I checked, the forum is called "New York City/Manhattan" and not "New York City/Manhattan Residents Only Reviews"...

Second, New York has remade itself countless of times.
- Did you know NY had a sizable manufacturing presence? Guess what happened when manufacturing moved away? NY thrived.
- Post 9/11? NY thrived
- Real Estate Crash? NY Thrived

The main point I want to convey is as long as NY continues to attract talent, then it will continue to reshape itself. What I'm hearing today is the same things I've heard 20 years ago.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Arrogant. The pandemic made clear that the need for office space is much lower than imagined. Commercial rents will never be the same in New York, nor will the number of people working return to pre pandemic levels. There Will simply be less demand for all services throughout Manhattan, which will have an adverse impact on everything: overall spending, property values, incomes.

For those, and other equally negative factors, the best days of Manhattan as an economic engine that draws and supports all the fun stuff (culture, nightlife etc.) are gone. And that’s fine with me because: 1. I got mine and 2. any loyalty had to NYC was exterminated by the deranged progressives lunatics who won’t be content until its a full on marxist shit hole.

 

[nycdude]

Well, there are reports of several large corporations planning to bring 80% or more employees back to their NYC offices.

Companies were able to survive and perform adequately with staff working remotely because everyone was also doing it. Meaning the performance bar was lowered because of covid restrictions. Now that the vaccine is being implemented and restrictions are being lifted, the performance bar will go back up.

This is all speculation. Time will tell.

 

[Johnmong]

I think tech is one of the bigger pieces of the puzzle in this equation. Tech has built solutions for making WFH more productive and possible. But NYC also has a whole lot of tech companies within it. Specifically Manhattan from Midtown all the way down to Downtown.

Google is the big ball player calling for a return to office, so there is that. Will other companies follow in its footsteps?? I genuinely dont know. I know Facebook bought up real estate in Hudson Yards before the pandemic but kept development going during the pandemic. That hints at something... But I also know that Facebook is on the fence about being strict about return to office. Ive heard of a rotating shift of coming into the office certain days, as well as floating desks for when people do want to come into the office, but also have a commitment for some teams being fully remote. Theres a lot of uproar in the tech industry about having to return to office. I think this past year has made it clear that the tech workers don't want to leave their homes if they don't need to.

As for the politics... I dont know or really care to be honest. I feel like nyc has so many distractions that keep me from really thinking that the NYC is the way it is because of the politics. "Oh the subways suck because xyz reason? well these citi bikes are real fun this time of the year", "what broadway still isn't opening until September? oh well these park performances are so much nicer to enjoy the weather".
The only thing that does really concern me is the amount of hate crimes within NYC still. Can that be traced back to progressives and their call to abolish the police? I dont know.. I think its a deeper problem then that but thats a different conversation. (although it does seem like actions are being taken for these hate crimes)

I can't speak for finance or real estate or whatever other industries within NYC have a need for office space, but I have a feeling even without the need for office space, NYC is gonna bounce back. I'm typing this all the way from LA and already sense NYC is coming back really strong. I've been feeling the urge to be back, and almost ANYONE I meet here that did the same move from NYC seems to have the same feeling after the honeymoon phase of being in LA is over. I actually just saw someone I met 2 weeks ago from NYC that said LA is "good for the mental" and you can "hide if you want" who just posted on their story TODAY that they are looking for a sublease in "downtown Manhattan for May - August or anything in between" (ITS ALREADY MID MAY MIND YOU).

It feels very obvious that this summer is going to be THE SUMMER and nyc is the place to be to spend summer

 

[captain.williams.2]

The city is primed for a renaissance, midtown rents are waaaay down—it’s the new Williamsburg

 

[Dynaguy]

Of course NYC will come back. What’ll be interesting is how different parts If the city and city life will come back differently.

 

[Alvin Lee]

I think the most important interview question of the decade will emanate from the interviewer. " do you prefer to work from home or in the office?" In and of itself a very innocuous question when proposed properly. It is a " quicksand" question. WFH will terminate the interview shortly thereafter. The next crop will be hard chargers, vaccinated and fearless. They get the job. Ability can be taught, attitude is natuare and nurture, too late to teach by the time you are interviewing. And whi wants or needs to. You need to show up to the interview, and consequently the job, prepared to do battle. No one wants the proverbial " picker" or the 9-5 in and out employee. Got to check that at the door. They want marines who came to play. On that note, previously when you answered the question and stated " I would prefer to work from home, did you really expect to get get hired with that answer? Hmmmm?

 

[wendigo]

How are you herbs still discussing this...you either live and play here because you can afford to and like to. Or you don’t and player hate from the sidelines...pretty simple. Only the strong the survive x

 

[LoneSwordsman_NY]

" do you prefer to work from home or in the office?"

My answer: I prefer to work in harmony with my boss and my team. If my boss and my team prefer that I work in the office, that's what I will do. If they prefer varying percentages of office/home that change along with the calendar, that's fine.

 

[Ilovegirls]

I remember 911 it took a decade to come back from that and COVID is like 1000x worse, we will see

 

[Meathead]

I worked downtown but we were supposed to move to a midtown location last summer. Obviously that was postponed. The thing was the new place was going to have shared desks/seating, sit anywhere you want, open space, promote a collaborative workspace kind of thing. I always thought that was stupid but I would think that idea would be scrapped now but I haven't heard. I know some companies think cubicle seating are the thing of the past but I think that type of lay out is the way to go in this new world. You get your own space and can be socially distanced etc..Wonder what these companies will do with that kind of situation

 

[Ilovegirls]

I worked downtown but we were supposed to move to a midtown location last summer. Obviously that was postponed. The thing was the new place was going to have shared desks/seating, sit anywhere you want, open space, promote a collaborative workspace kind of thing. I always thought that was stupid but I would think that idea would be scrapped now but I haven't heard. I know some companies think cubicle seating are the thing of the past but I think that type of lay out is the way to go in this new world. You get your own space and can be socially distanced etc..Wonder what these companies will do with that kind of situation

companies are going to cut a lot of the commercial office space. Save money

 

[AutomaticSlim]

companies are going to cut a lot of the commercial office space. Save money

Yep. There is no way they will go back to 100% in office staffing now that they've proven they can have almost all staff work from home and save a shit ton of cash.
And if I can make NYC money from Tampa or West Palm?
Hell...why not???

 

[Defyeler]

Yep. There is no way they will go back to 100% in office staffing now that they've proven they can have almost all staff work from home and save a shit ton of cash.
And if I can make NYC money from Tampa or West Palm?
Hell...why not???

That's not how it works for most companies. They will pay local median wages of where you are, not where the company is 90% of the time, if you are a new hire. If you already work for the company, then compensation is usually re-negotiated. Because how the company themselves pay your taxes, worker's comp, insurance (their insurance), FICA matches, and other Federal and State taxes (for them) change because of where the employee is located.

 

[AutomaticSlim]

That's not how it works for most companies. They will pay local median wages of where you are, not where the company is 90% of the time, if you are a new hire. If you already work for the company, then compensation is usually re-negotiated. Because how the company themselves pay your taxes, worker's comp, insurance (their insurance), FICA matches, and other Federal and State taxes (for them) change because of where the employee is located.

Yes, I understand your point and what I described does apply to most people -- direct full time employees.
It's different for me because I am an independent consultant.

 

[Alvin Lee]

That's not how it works for most companies. They will pay local median wages of where you are, not where the company is 90% of the time, if you are a new hire. If you already work for the company, then compensation is usually re-negotiated. Because how the company themselves pay your taxes, worker's comp, insurance (their insurance), FICA matches, and other Federal and State taxes (for them) change because of where the employee is located.

True . It goes way beyond this . WFH and beyond will be handled differently from company to company . No one authorized or condoned employees to move out of state . That was an aberration of a privilege extended by the company . Work from home does not mean move out of state . It was a courtesy granted by the company to the employees breed out of preventative measures employed by the fed, state and city as a mitigation method against Covid.

Many companies have already sent out letters informing employees of their expected return in September. Furthermore they are insisting you be vaccinated citing the federal mandate requiring school children to be vaccinated. It will reluctantly be implemented in the workplace , eventually it will be in place .

If you purchased a residence out of state expecting your full wage and your employment to continue unscathed , hopefully you are important enough to implement that maneuver without consequence. Most are soon slated to discover their importance to the company has been greatly exaggerated.

We need to meet in person, act as a team and be available live and in person - front and center. in order to be a successful company. Work from home might be desirable for the worker bee, however the company sees it differently across the board. Amazon , Google and Facebook didn’t purchase massive amounts of real estate in NYC for the privilege of you working from home . Remember who is in charge . Back in the 1940’s we spawned the greatest generation in the face of crisis . This current crisis has breed the entitled generation hands outstretched waiting for the next stimulus . It’s not coming - the whistles blowing “ back to work” lunch break is over .

 

[AutomaticSlim]

Yes, I understand your point and what I described does apply to most people -- direct full time employees.
It's different for me because I am an independent consultant.

@Defyeler

Meant to say "what you described applies to most people"...

 

[BIGBOB62]

companies are going to cut a lot of the commercial office space. Save money

I work with a lot of big companies as a consultant. All of them are not planning major shifts back to the office until fall and most are rethinking/closing offices worldwide, renegotiating leases. generally corporate offices staying, close to same size. sales offices staying. but support staff in remote offices moving to wfh, except asia. Lots of smaller remote offices closing. Not sure what it all means to NYC though. In general it seems like there the offices are staying, but people are going to be allowed to just come in a couple days a week, and no hoteling yet. whats really interesting to me, is that i haven't seen any resizing of staffs with what happened to the economy in the places i work, thank god.

 

[trash10801]

Convert the commercial real estate into residential. Millions of people would *love* to live in New York City and work remotely.

 

[Optidong]

The AMP scene seems okish. There are outages and pickier providers that don't want to work much.

I havent run into the crime recently. Crime is way up and the politicians in the city suck dick. Last year was a war zone. I am vaccinated and I eat out at times.

A lot of money left the city, there are thousands of apartments delisted. People are getting signing bonuses to go work since the government is giving money away

 

[Alvin Lee]

The AMP scene seems okish. There are outages and pickier providers that don't want to work much.

I havent run into the crime recently. Crime is way up and the politicians in the city suck dick. Last year was a war zone. I am vaccinated and I eat out at times.

A lot of money left the city, there are thousands of apartments delisted. People are getting signing bonuses to go work since the government is giving money away

The truth is - society doesn’t know how this will play- we all have our opinions based mostly on hyperbole and conjecture. The CEO’s have a hot potato- the solution at present disjointed and idiosyncratic to each individual corporate culture. In the end the biggest and strongest companies will lead the band dictating the pace and algorithm of our return - I will bet my bottom dollar we will inevitably return to the normal we knew - with modifications in place for the day when not if Covid 20 or some other horrific plague rears it’s head.

If it doesn’t - 2-3 years from now this ones in the history books - WFH doesn’t work - it’s anti social , hermetic, lonely , disjointed and in a way cruel . We are designed to go to work and come home - that is the way it is - play nice