Blood on the street II

[benzy45]

https://www.politico.com/states/new...-to-address-lack-of-social-distancing-1268659

It's looking like less than 2% fatality once hospitals are better prepared for the influx. I would imagine 2 mos or so businesses gotta start reopening again. At least in NY.

You can't let the economy completely die.

Two months is too long. Unemployment will be up around 25% by then. We'll all be selling apples on the nearest street corner.

 

[amg600]

I really hate to be the prophet of doom. In the end the price of equities is driven by one thing. Profits. After second quarter results start coming out in July Dow is going to 5,000.I sincerely hope that I am 100 percent wrong!

 

[njlefty]

I really hate to be the prophet of doom. In the end the price of equities is driven by one thing. Profits. After second quarter results start coming out in July Dow is going to 5,000.I sincerely hope that I am 100 percent wrong!

Holy shit if that happens. I can see the Dow at 10,000 by July or sooner, though.

 

[East Lake II]

Interesting new development, the Fed is going to buy exchange traded funds that track the corporate bond mkt. This is a first.

 

[VJLUTZ]

Good article:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

 

[krideynyc]

Good article:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

There's a reason why medical science do not recommend we go back to "Herd Immunity" to tackle viral outbreaks.

Some reasons that makes going with Herd Immunity a bad choice, as The Netherlands is doing. 1) We're not 100% confident reinfection is not possible. So far, no cases of reinfection. But the largest population of recovered people is still under lockdown in China. And that's doesn't include the issue of their credibility. 2) We don't know if those that have recovered are protected against future mutations of this virus. Same question applies to any vaccine developed to fight it.

 

[feetguy1]

Good article:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

I'm not sure if herd immunity on its own is effective without vaccinations. It appears herd immunity works where enough people are vaccinated.

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/news/20181130/what-herd-immunity-and-how-does-it-protect-us

 

[Jgunzz]

I'm not sure if herd immunity on its own is effective without vaccinations. It appears herd immunity works where enough people are vaccinated.

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/news/20181130/what-herd-immunity-and-how-does-it-protect-us

They are trying it in the Netherlands

 

[krideynyc]

I'm not sure if herd immunity on its own is effective without vaccinations. It appears herd immunity works where enough people are vaccinated.

On it's own, it would work, but with a high death rate. That's why the UK was against it, and forced the Gov't to proceed with lockdown. The Netherlands is trying Herd Immunity at a controlled rate. They will continue to use Social Distancing to minimize the spread, but allow some normal interaction to allow for Herd Immunity. Counting on their medical system to help minimize severe cases, and low deaths. But without testing to determine how widespread the virus is, they run the same risk the US had before lockdown, and that is a spike in cases. I don't see them continuing the policy if the medical system nears capacity.

 

[Koondog]

Daniel Dae-Kim posted a quick video saying he thinks that malaria cocktail helped save him. I hope those are available universally upon request for patients who may want to try it. He knows it's only anecdotally successful and not ready on a mass scale but he said put him down as one who is convinced it works.

 

[feetguy1]

Daniel Dae-Kim posted a quick video saying he thinks that malaria cocktail helped save him. I hope those are available universally upon request for patients who may want to try it. He knows it's only anecdotally successful and not ready on a mass scale but he said put him down as one who is convinced it works.

It appears that South Korea is using combinations of medications to treat the virus. So far, South Korea didn't say it's a cure as of yet. It's a treatment, which to me, it's something you need to continue to take until a vaccine is available. I hope the actor is cured from this virus if it works.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...nti-malaria-drugs-for-COVID-19/6961584012321/

 

[Freddy]

Wash yo hands, wash yo ass, stay 6ft apart from others, don’t forget to support your UTR and Indy lovelies, grab a bag of groceries when making a visit to a provider in case you’re pulled over for being out in public (excuse for being out) if you’re under a shelter in place.

 

[VJLUTZ]

On it's own, it would work, but with a high death rate.

I think the actual mortality rate is still a huge question mark. Many people are getting this and showing zero or very minor symptoms. As such, they will never be tested. When this first started, I guessed the mortality rate would be about 1%. Now I think it will be well under that. Also, this disease has characteristics that make it very difficult to contain (including the large number of asymptomatic people and the length of time it can live on surfaces). So the more I learn, the more I think our current approach is foolish. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon. Just hope chloroquine (or some other existing drug) turns out to be effective.

BTW, I am not saying the disease is not horrible if you are most susceptible to it. It is. Personally, I'd hate to drown from fluid in my lungs. But society has weather many terrible diseases in the past without shutting down as we are doing now. Those who say we have to shut down Society to save "everyone" are totally out of touch with reality. It may seem cold, but every disease is a numbers game.

 

[Koondog]

From what I have heard China has totally stopped testing people, that's why they're boasting about better numbers and having things totally under control now.

 

[Uniquelyme]

I think the actual mortality rate is still a huge question mark. Many people are getting this and showing zero or very minor symptoms. As such, they will never be tested. When this first started, I guessed the mortality rate would be about 1%. Now I think it will be well under that. Also, this disease has characteristics that make it very difficult to contain (including the large number of asymptomatic people and the length of time it can live on surfaces). So the more I learn, the more I think our current approach is foolish. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon. Just hope chloroquine (or some other existing drug) turns out to be effective.

BTW, I am not saying the disease is not horrible if you are most susceptible to it. It is. Personally, I'd hate to drown from fluid in my lungs. But society has weather many terrible diseases in the past without shutting down as we are doing now. Those who say we have to shut down Society to save "everyone" are totally out of touch with reality. It may seem cold, but every disease is a numbers game.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/americas/brazil-mexico-coronavirus.html?0p19G=2870

Mexico and Brazil are taking your approach
Lets see how it plays out for them. Not good that Mexico on the border isn't paying this enough attention. Now borders have to definitely be guarded.

 

[krideynyc]

I think the actual mortality rate is still a huge question mark. Many people are getting this and showing zero or very minor symptoms. As such, they will never be tested. When this first started, I guessed the mortality rate would be about 1%. Now I think it will be well under that. Also, this disease has characteristics that make it very difficult to contain (including the large number of asymptomatic people and the length of time it can live on surfaces). So the more I learn, the more I think our current approach is foolish. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon. Just hope chloroquine (or some other existing drug) turns out to be effective.

BTW, I am not saying the disease is not horrible if you are most susceptible to it. It is. Personally, I'd hate to drown from fluid in my lungs. But society has weather many terrible diseases in the past without shutting down as we are doing now. Those who say we have to shut down Society to save "everyone" are totally out of touch with reality. It may seem cold, but every disease is a numbers game.

Well, when you consider that until we understood how viruses and bacteria infected us, isolation and Herd Immunity were the only way we dealt with them. Even with Herd Immunity, mortality rate will be dependent on the medical system’s ability to help patients recover. Any shortage will mean the patients will have to self recover. And most don’t if they develop pneumonia.

 

[krideynyc]

From what I have heard China has totally stopped testing people, that's why they're boasting about better numbers and having things totally under control now.

They still testing and quarantining those returning from Overseas. They’ve also be under lockdown for almost 2 months. That may have worked to limit spread.

 

[krideynyc]

I think the actual mortality rate is still a huge question mark. Many people are getting this and showing zero or very minor symptoms. As such, they will never be tested. When this first started, I guessed the mortality rate would be about 1%. Now I think it will be well under that. Also, this disease has characteristics that make it very difficult to contain (including the large number of asymptomatic people and the length of time it can live on surfaces). So the more I learn, the more I think our current approach is foolish. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon. Just hope chloroquine (or some other existing drug) turns out to be effective.

BTW, I am not saying the disease is not horrible if you are most susceptible to it. It is. Personally, I'd hate to drown from fluid in my lungs. But society has weather many terrible diseases in the past without shutting down as we are doing now. Those who say we have to shut down Society to save "everyone" are totally out of touch with reality. It may seem cold, but every disease is a numbers game.

Forgot to add: Italy is currently at 9% mortality. That’s skewing the current weather estimate above the official 3.4% from the WHO. Germany is the opposite at 0.4%. But their success is due to early testing. And determined tracking down of potential cases to stop the infection chain. South Korea would have had similar results if the initial infection zone wasn’t so severe.

 

[VJLUTZ]

Forgot to add: Italy is currently at 9% mortality.

Again, I doubt this is reliable as not everyone is being tested. Many people are asymptomatic. In Italy, the vast majority of those dying are over 70 with other conditions.

 

[VJLUTZ]

Another interesting article. Lots of wild speculation as to why this is.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites