Bets on how SOON we get back to “normal?”

[pocoloco51]

Just wanted to see what my fellow members think about how LONG it will take until we get back to “normal?”

For me, back to normal would include AMPs providing “GFE” services without hesitation, or fear, even more so including infamous rimming services, since recently distributed NYC health guidelines frowned upon both activities.

Figured this would be a good instance of “crowdsourcing,” since odds are many members on here are on the actual “frontlines,” as doctors/nurses/Uber drivers, so they may have a better finger on the pulse of what’s actually happening out there vs. those of us who are housebound for the obvious reasons.

Thanks for reading and participating, gents.

 

[hohohokus]

June

 

[discovernyc]

Aug

 

[green2]

Gfe...probably 1 year. Opening stores lack of social distancing June

 

[hithere456]

Without a vaccine or herd immunity threshold being hit...I’m thinking at least 2 years for this hobby.

Im not sure how many small businesses and bar/restaurants will have the financial wherewithal to come back after a 2-3 month closure.

Hopefully we don’t experience food supply disruptions.

We’re definitely hitting the reset button here

 

[Bogglee]

I'd say summer of 2021.

 

[hamilton2015]

By June. As the season gets warmer and due to natural course of a viral spread, there will be a tappering off of the number of infected (barring an unforseen second wave of re-infections across the country). Things will slowly be back to normal by then...well a new normal at least.

 

[green2]

I think the crappy thing is the second wave....seems inevitable that in the northern hemi we'll get slammed again during the holidays just like the flu. I don't think we'll shut down the same way though.

 

[sklien]

Until reliable vaccine is available ,those who haven’t had it , better refrain. That’s assuming there is some acquired immunity having had it. Of course you could still be a carrier. That’s an unknown and will not turn up in standard nasal test.

there is way less known than known and all the theorizing is pointless wishful thinking, but most of you already know that. No one is saying that this will subside in the summer for sure. It could but it will be hard to know when that has occurred since there will still be infections going on tested and otherwise So a risk will remain.

I just exchanged texts with my atf of atfs and felt very sad knowing how this will be for her. I will keep in touch and hold out hope that I will see her agaIn. Never realized how close we were until now.

 

[Koondog]

It better be pretty damn soon, if we want the economy to have a prayer at recovering that is.

 

[radsamda]

Gfe...probably 1 year.

lol

"You know uh, I never thought I'd say this to anybody, but you two smoke entirely too much reefer. "

 

[Jdub42]

Until reliable vaccine is available ,those who haven’t had it , better refrain. That’s assuming there is some acquired immunity having had it. Of course you could still be a carrier. That’s an unknown and will not turn up in standard nasal test.

there is way less known than known and all the theorizing is pointless wishful thinking, but most of you already know that. No one is saying that this will subside in the summer for sure. It could but it will be hard to know when that has occurred since there will still be infections going on tested and otherwise So a risk will remain.

I just exchanged texts with my atf of atfs and felt very sad knowing how this will be for her. I will keep in touch and hold out hope that I will see her agaIn. Never realized how close we were until now.

Most people have it and don't know it. Some can confuse it with a common cold. In other words most wont know they are immune to it.

 

[sklien]

One of the most promising therapies may be one in which antibodies from the blood plasma of those who have recovered is given to those who are seriously ill, thereby conferring some immunity to the recipient .

this has proven efficacy and in addition I would alow those with proven immunity to return to work. This would be particularly good for healthcare workers. Those tests exist now. It just has to proven in the case of covid At least some hope out there.

 

[Tico1]

I think nyc will have lower cases in July or August, then comes fall there might be a second wave? They are trying to use the malaria drug and zithromax to treat it. Maybe they will develop something like prep that people can take to prevent it? De Blasio says 50% of ny will get it? Sadly I think maybe June 2021 when a vaccine should be developed, then it will be over.

The question is that when they reduce social isolation and allow people to go back to work, will any of you guys be willing to chance it and hobby and get this virus? I bet most of the mongers here fall in the high risk group. Are you willing to risk 2-3 weeks in ICU and be on a ventilator?

 

[Qjbankai]

I think nyc will have lower cases in July or August, then comes fall there might be a second wave? They are trying to use the malaria drug and zithromax to treat it. Maybe they will develop something like prep that people can take to prevent it? De Blasio says 50% of ny will get it? Sadly I think maybe June 2021 when a vaccine should be developed, then it will be over.

The question is that when they reduce social isolation and allow people to go back to work, will any of you guys be willing to chance it and hobby and get this virus? I bet most of the mongers here fall in the high risk group. Are you willing to risk 2-3 weeks in ICU and be on a ventilator?

NOPE NOPE NOPE

 

[sklien]

The way things are progressing n the city, better bring your own ventilator.

 

[twotimesone]

My guess is that less people will get sick and die during Late June till Sept because of the weather. So there will be some kind of normalcy. When fall comes, we will get a 2nd wave..

 

[herbstriker]

phase 1 will be no more shelter in place. I give that 6 to 8 weeks from start. phase 2 ( gloves, masked, spraying strangers with lys9ol) 6 months to under 2 years.

 

[herbstriker]

this ain't a minor thing. 500 year flood stuff.

 

[Donkey37]

It's going to be a long time. August is optimistic. You can use Asia as a predictor. For example, I have a good friend in Hong Kong who told me that Nintendo Switch was gonna sell out here bc it already sold out there months ago.

Hong Kong went into lockdown in January and they are still in lockdown, with no end in sight. Kids were going to go back to school in April and that is going to be pushed back.

Hong Kong is 1/3 the size of New York City and has 4 deaths because everyone automatically social distanced. They had been through SARS so they knew. And they are still locked down. Meanwhile NYC is at what...500 deaths? We are not taking it seriously enough here and it's going to explode.

If Hong Kong had been shut down for 3 months with no end in sight and their numbers are way better than ours, we are looking at many months of lockdown. Best case IMO is the fall.