Coronavirus

[redhothotrod]

Well yes it IS a viral pneumonia and a portion of patients never return to baseline FUNCTION ( more important than the scan). That percentage is way greater than the one or two in a million deaths from vaccination. A similar follow up study of survivors in Hong Kong: Conclusion: The exercise capacity and health status of SARS survivors was considerably lower than that of a normal population at 6 months. Significant impairment in surface area for gas exchange was noted in 15.5% of survivors.

We seem to be split between the naysayers and the alarmists and at least for now it is prudent to be on the concerned camp to help mitigate the problem. I’m with CB on this. It’s becoming obvious that young people are not excluded from harm. Everyone should comply.

Younger people have a tendency to congregate more with one another and also be closer...They resist social distancing; just the opposite hence a higher degree of infection transmission. Age is just one factor , behaviors are many...Younger people lungs are also different from older: more “fresh”
in their ability to transfer oxygen into the blood and achieve athleticism But consequently also more vulnerable to pathogens and their destructive effects. Hopefully they have also an advantage to heal again over the long run though lung scar tissue is hard to replace with new. Of more concern should be that consequently they become more vulnerable to other lung diseases like TB in the future . I dread the upcoming effects in India and Africa ...

 

[dotcom]

JUST STAY HOME. MAINTAIN A 6 FT DISTANCE, AND WASH FREQUENTLY. That's the only treatment to date. Also a doc here on front lines. Colleagues getting ill left and right. Testing just now becoming more available. As such, expect a numerical surge in cases. Dilemma persist...who to test and under what circumstances. Recent travel is a moot point at this time. The most worrisome thing for me is that 10% mortality rate, not to mention the economic impact. Health insurance companies are gonna go bust.

 

[Kittylover]

Ronin, thanks for your input. As this thread has proven there is obviously a wide gap between those of us in the medical field and and the lay public. In this jacked up emotional situation I’m afraid never the twain shall meet.

If you’re in a medical field than I am concerned about this field greatly.

 

[Kittylover]

JUST STAY HOME. MAINTAIN A 6 FT DISTANCE, AND WASH FREQUENTLY. That's the only treatment to date. Also a doc here on front lines. Colleagues getting ill left and right. Testing just now becoming more available. As such, expect a numerical surge in cases. Dilemma persist...who to test and under what circumstances. Recent travel is a moot point at this time. The most worrisome thing for me is that 10% mortality rate, not to mention the economic impact. Health insurance companies are gonna go bust.

Why would insurance companies go bust? How is it different from regular hospitalizations? Especially if you take into consideration that most are not hospitalized and will not be?

 

[minimalist]

JUST STAY HOME. MAINTAIN A 6 FT DISTANCE, AND WASH FREQUENTLY. That's the only treatment to date. Also a doc here on front lines. Colleagues getting ill left and right. Testing just now becoming more available. As such, expect a numerical surge in cases. Dilemma persist...who to test and under what circumstances. Recent travel is a moot point at this time. The most worrisome thing for me is that 10% mortality rate, not to mention the economic impact. Health insurance companies are gonna go bust.

I agree with most of what you said but mortality rate of 10%? I believe it is under 3% unless you are referring to a certain age group.

 

[Kittylover]

I agree with most of what you said but mortality rate of 10%? I believe it is under 3% unless you are referring to a certain age group.

It is not 10%. Less.

 

[Ronin]

It is not 10%. Less.

So far. In medicine that’s still considered high. No one knows with certainty where we’re headed but the consensus among my colleagues is that we’re at least 2-3 weeks behind the power curve and will have a better idea of census, morbidity, and mortality then

 

[Kittylover]

So far. In medicine that’s still considered high. No one knows with certainty where we’re headed but the consensus among my colleagues is that we’re at least 2-3 weeks behind the power curve and will have a better idea of census, morbidity, and mortality then

In majority of countries it’s much less than 10%. Especially in China because they used the methods that work. I hope that we don’t see the numbers rising very much. Would prefer not to have people die at all but that’s impossible it looks like.
I really hope that it passes by fast and doesn’t leave a negative lingering effect.

 

[charliebrown]

In majority of countries it’s much less than 10%. Especially in China because they used the methods that work. I hope that we don’t see the numbers rising very much. Would prefer not to have people die at all but that’s impossible it looks like.
I really hope that it passes by fast and doesn’t leave a negative lingering effect.

As much as I am concerned about this virus, there are some unintended consequences from it. Automobile accidents are responsible for a ton of injuries and deaths every year. I will bet any amount of money that for every corona virus case, the is a equal and opposite number of hospitalization and deaths from auto accidents.

With all of the precautions taken for this virus, how many less flu related hospitalizations and deaths will occur?

Pollution, down.
Crime, down.

We will get thru this and we will get thru this better than anyone can imagine at this current time.

 

[Nonymous]

The death rate varies widely from nation to nation. A reassuring estimate is an ultimate .1% death rate. (https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/). For some perspective, if flying on an airline had a .1% death rate, there would be 44 plane crashes everyday in the USA resulting in 2,700+ fatalities every year. (https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers/). If 50% of Americans caught covid, and .1% died, that would be 165,000 dead. Half of Pittsburgh. A higher death rate is nothing more than arithmetic. .5% death rate/50% infection rate leaves 825,000 dead. Guhbye the equivalent of San Francisco, Charlotte, or Indianapolis.

 

[Kittylover]

The death rate varies widely from nation to nation. A reassuring estimate is an ultimate .1% death rate. (https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/). For some perspective, if flying on an airline had a .1% death rate, there would be 44 plane crashes everyday in the USA resulting in 2,700+ fatalities every year. (https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers/). If 50% of Americans caught covid, and .1% died, that would be 165,000 dead. Half of Pittsburgh. A higher death rate is nothing more than arithmetic. .5% death rate/50% infection rate leaves 825,000 dead. Guhbye the equivalent of San Francisco, Charlotte, or Indianapolis.

Naturally when people die it’s never a good thing. But the less of them do the better still.

 

[jim_hatez]

Naturally when people die it’s never a good thing. But the less of them do the better still.

Also let's be clear... EVERYONE is going to DIE... and when you're old and infirm, the chances go up quickly and nobody beats the odds forever. The vast majority of deaths are elderly and infirm. These people are a bug away from death as it is. Do I want this bug to kill them, of course not, but let's not exaggerate. Shocking someone who claims to be a Dr. would say 10% mortality rate. Fear mongering lies. It's no where near that. And to the other guy who quoted exercise impact being reduced at 6 months. How the F can you know this? It hasn't been 6 months since this virus emerged. Take any precaution you want, and avoid risky activities because any illness sucks. But stop feeing the lies and exagerrations that have severely damaged our economy and country.

 

[Kraven]

The studies that show reduction if exercise tolerance and quality of life were done on survivors of SARS virus, the closely related first pandemic corona virus that happened in 2002. It’s the closest model we have to C19( official designation of the C19 virus in fact is SARS-CoV-19). Also both diseases may lead to ARDS (Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and it’s consequences-see article in today’s Inquirer Health section. So yes, an extrapolation but not unreasonable. It’s not fear mongering to try to predict based on the best information we have. Experts like Fauci and others are saying it’s getting worse before it gets better. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is a better strategy than magical thinking. I would argue it was just such denial that the virus would disappear by a “miracle” etc by the WH that got us into the current bind.

 

[Ronin]

I’ve stopped following this for several reasons. I don’t think we’ll have a reasonable idea of mortality rates for another 2-3 weeks. But I believe the exercise impact was from a post swine flu study. I could very well be inaccurate on that, but I won’t go back to look. I have more cases now and I don’t need a study to tell me later, what I’m seeing clinically now. My parting gift will be plaquenil is an effective treatment. NOT 100%. Hardly anything is. I hope you all stay well.

 

[Ronin]

 

[Kraven]

Thank you Mr Bean. Or should I say Doctor Bean lol.
Btw the study I quoted involving a walking test was post SARS:

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/60/5/401

 

[redhothotrod]

This quarantine is never gonna work: people will go crazy after one month or even more of this. That’s why “outdoor” people like Italian Spaniard French keep getting infected especially now that weather is getting nicer. In the USA too many will not be able to bring up the patience and discipline . Maybe only the Chinese and Koreans will...So we’ll end up with a lot of beautiful women and the few remaining guys like us in very much demand ! Hang in there guys : paradise is waiting around the corner

 

[Kittylover]

This quarantine is never gonna work: people will go crazy after one month or even more of this. That’s why “outdoor” people like Italian Spaniard French keep getting infected especially now that weather is getting nicer. In the USA too many will not be able to bring up the patience and discipline . Maybe only the Chinese and Koreans will...So we’ll end up with a lot of beautiful women and the few remaining guys like us in very much demand ! Hang in there guys : paradise is waiting around the corner

Lol good motivation

 

[Kraven]

Good state of the art advise on Coronavirus safety:

Gist of it for those who do not have time for the first 30 min:
1. Be a “hands nazi” when it comes to cleaning after touching things outside the home.
2. Masks are useful not because they prevent inhalation of virus but because they keep you from touching your face and transmitting from your hands.

 

[Kraven]

sorry for the privacy block.
Maybe do a search for Dr David Price, Cornell University Hospital. He’s head pulmonologist.