Blood on the streets cleaned up

[njlefty]

Dow closed at 33,527. Let’s start hobbying with all this cash.

 

[charliebrown]

I told you guys last year that the pandemic was a godsend for those who took the risk to jump in when NJLefty was all gloom an doom.
Vaccines are working, the media fear mongering is over and the traffic is getting ridiculous. Gas pumps are pumping and this summer vacations are going to be packed.

People are going to be spending like it is 1999, Government is spending like 1999. Fed is printing like it is 1999.

 

[njlefty]

I told you guys last year that the pandemic was a godsend for those who took the risk to jump in when NJLefty was all gloom an doom.
Vaccines are working, the media fear mongering is over and the traffic is getting ridiculous. Gas pumps are pumping and this summer vacations are going to be packed.

People are going to be spending like it is 1999, Government is spending like 1999. Fed is printing like it is 1999.

You were right. I did not see any of this happening.

From reports today, the US economy will see its largest growth since 1984.

 

[248Lancer]

I’m on the “no way is this sustainable” bus. The current surge of spending is just releasing some pent up pressure by the sectors of the economy that still have the resources or just received them from the Fed Stimulus. There remains a too-large segment of unemployed/underemployed populace that also owns an outsized debt burden for a long term rebound.

When all the moratorium on evictions and foreclosures expire, it’s gonna be a mess.

 

[Doubleyellow]

market downturns are like bleeding, bleeding eventually stops. But the market won't bleed out, it never dies, it always comes back. And the USA and Chinese markets were the obvious bets to place last March/april. And this apring NASDAQ dropped what? 10%? Another gift.

It is hard to time the market, but every now and then you run into a time that the market gives you a gift, with a tag that says 'no better time than how'. It makes you feel good that the reason you held cash for years, anxiously seeing it not earn a thing, you can buy in and watch it jump 50, 60, 70% and more in a few months.

 

[Doubleyellow]

And another gift the government gives you. Drop your taxable income to ~40K if single, 80K if married for a year and check out how much you pay on long term capital gains you harvest! Then reinvest it in a similar fund and reset your base number.

 

[248Lancer]

market downturns are like bleeding, bleeding eventually stops. But the market won't bleed out, it never dies, it always comes back. And the USA and Chinese markets were the obvious bets to place last March/april. And this apring NASDAQ dropped what? 10%? Another gift.

It is hard to time the market, but every now and then you run into a time that the market gives you a gift, with a tag that says 'no better time than how'. It makes you feel good that the reason you held cash for years, anxiously seeing it not earn a thing, you can buy in and watch it jump 50, 60, 70% and more in a few months.

I hear you. Last fall I sold a small amount of an after-tax account to replace a vehicle, with the expectation of 6mos of solid gains to level back out. It leveled out in 6 weeks, and is now up 25% since leveling out. I still maintain a healthy skepticism, though, as my 6 mos aren't up yet.

 

[Doubleyellow]

I hear you. Last fall I sold a small amount of an after-tax account to replace a vehicle, with the expectation of 6mos of solid gains to level back out. It leveled out in 6 weeks, and is now up 25% since leveling out. I still maintain a healthy skepticism, though, as my 6 mos aren't up yet.

That is smart investing!

 

[njlefty]

Dow over 34,000.

 

[charliebrown]

I am one of the most pessimistic people in the room and I do not see any headwinds that will prevent the market from a slow and steady climb from this point.

I do understand that this pandemic has definitely separated the haves from the have nots more than anyone can imagine. We will think that will adversely effect the economy and I will tell you that it will only fuel it further. As we the government (INVESTS) we the corporation profit. It has and always will be that way.

If someone can give me a reason for pessimism, (in the market) I would gladly listen.

 

[Drjon7]

Here's what concerns me.

A slow and steady climb is ideal but we've gone from 19,000 to 34,000 in 12 months during a pandemic with very limited business activity for many companies. For the Dow, that's a massive move.

I real uptick in inflation will stop everything on a dime.

What happens when the govt stops pumping
hugh amounts of money into the system.

Check this one out.
Investors have put more money in the market in the last 5 months than the last 12 yrs combined.
This scares me the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/inv...nths-than-the-previous-12-years-combined.html

And the best indicator of a bubble is when
my mother calls and wants to buy stocks.
She hasn't called yet but there some rumblings.

 

[East Lake II]

The younger crowd seems to be sold on investing in cryptocurrency. By younger I mean under 45. COIN seems to be yet another part of this.

 

[Matawan3]

I think you really need to look at this chart and ask yourself if its a good time to be in this market. The more we go up, the more I convert positions to cash. I am not a doomsday type person; but we are due for at least a correction if not more.

I could be totally wrong, and we could just keep going up. Its basically worked without fail since 2009 (minus our hiccup last year). But at this point I'd rather be wrong and keep what I have vs be wrong and watch my money vanish. So my toes are dipped in for anymore runs higher. But I have a lot of sidelines cash too; which would be ready to go to work should we make that correction. I think its a good place to be right now.

 

[njlefty]

Here's what concerns me.

A slow and steady climb is ideal but we've gone from 19,000 to 34,000 in 12 months during a pandemic with very limited business activity for many companies. For the Dow, that's a massive move.

I real uptick in inflation will stop everything on a dime.

What happens when the govt stops pumping
hugh amounts of money into the system.

Check this one out.
Investors have put more money in the market in the last 5 months than the last 12 yrs combined.
This scares me the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/inv...nths-than-the-previous-12-years-combined.html

And the best indicator of a bubble is when
my mother calls and wants to buy stocks.
She hasn't called yet but there some rumblings.

I find an air of unreality about the markets. The Dow from 19 to 34 during 12 months of a plague.

 

[Matawan3]

Technicals aren't great either. The 5 yr RSI is way overbought. Last time it was this high was at the start of 2020. Also the MACD has double topped.

Cheap money for so many years, massive spending, govt floats for the unemployed. Ill continue to sell into strength.

 

[charliebrown]

OK guys, I am going to continue surfing this wave into shore. Always looking for assets, not cash. Cash is cheap and will get cheaper with time. If I was really concerned about the market, especially if the market is being propped up with government spending and printing, then I would be buying hard assets like silver, gold, real estate, farm land, and even crypto currencies.

Stock market is definitely the first thing to get overinflated, but haven't we seen enough times how our government will be quick to correct and deflationary pressure of the market?

I do get your concerns and I have respect for your opinions. I am a conservative person by nature so when I tell you that I am in the market, I am not in leveraged investments and most of my investments are good old dividend paying corporations that produce product that is a necessity.

 

[Matawan3]

But the only way the govt can stop inflation is raising interest rates. Right now the market is priced on the idea that rates aren't raised. If they do get raised, look out below.

I guess I am just never a fan of buying something at record highs that has made parabolic moves despite a country that is in distress. That makes zero sense.

When I enter a position I look for opportunity. Something people haven't yet discovered. Potential. I look at the market records now and see the exact opposite it has more of a "you are the last one in" look to it. More of a "you missed the boat".

I was a huge buyer after the covid crash in early 2020. DJIA 18K looked like that opportunity. and it was. DJIA 34K?......LOL.

 

[charliebrown]

You keep laughing and I will keep collecting my dividends. I am not selling individual stocks because the market is high. I sell stocks when the stock itself has not future in the long term.

I have heard people saying amazon was overvalues since it was on the market. How about Tesla? I can go on but it is not worth it. We each take our own course in how to live life, maintain our health and invest our money.

I am saying I still have a long term view even with an overvalued market. If you want to sell calls for your stocks while EVERYONE GOES ON VACATION this summer. That would make sense to me. When you are sitting in traffic, standing in lines, paying twice as much for a vacation than you did prior to the pandemic, then you will remember me and ask if the market really was overvalued or do we have a two class population of haves and have nots and the haves gained a hell of a lot of momentum thanks to our wonderful pandemic shutdowns.

 

[Matawan3]

Dividends? Most stocks yield like 5% return per year. A stock can easily fall or rise 5% DAILY. Dividends mean nothing in terms of overall risk. A yearly return barely covers a daily drop in most cases.

I guess I just don't understand how you don't see a problem with the valuations. Record highs, almost doubled in value in a year, during a pandemic and times of economic crisis; and that is not a red flag? That is the very definition of a red flag.

Long term view? thats fine. If you've been in this market for awhile, you are playing with massive winnings, so I am sure you don't care if you lose some winnings. I am speaking more about the market in the here and now as a buying opportunity; it makes no sense.

 

[Matawan3]

You need on average about $200,000 in the stock market to even make $500 a month in dividends and thats with ETFs not stocks. Imagine that money at a daily risk of losing $60,000 or more for a mere $500 a month in Dividends.

Yipee!!