Blood on the street II

[feetguy1]

Interesting. Not a well known news source, but the article is based on a March 30th Imperial College (UK) study.

Again, this is an estimate of the final CV-19 mortality rate. It does not address the current & considerable burden on the health care system.

https://www.libertynation.com/coronavirus-more-widespread-less-deadly-than-claimed/

I'm not sure this Liberty Nation article got it right. This Washington Post article shows a much gloomier report from the Imperial College.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

 

[charliebrown]

Nice day on the markets. Apparently driven by decreasing worldwide death totals.....

Yep, we need the capitalist back to work before the people get back to work.
As the curve flattens, optimism will soar (could it be any lower?)

I know there is going to be more bad news, this bad news but the longer we are in this fight, the stronger we are becoming in all areas.

@njlefty, your negativity will eventually be squelched.

 

[njlefty]

Yep, we need the capitalist back to work before the people get back to work.
As the curve flattens, optimism will soar (could it be any lower?)

I know there is going to be more bad news, this bad news but the longer we are in this fight, the stronger we are becoming in all areas.

@njlefty, your negativity will eventually be squelched.

 

[charliebrown]

Sorry NJL, pessimism is the correct word, other than your pessimism over this, you are on of the most positive people on this site. You have to be to have lived in NJ for an extended period of time!

 

[redhothotrod]

has anyone noticed this: first it was max von sydow who left us just before the virus began to hit us badly as if he gave up playing the chess game ( 7th seal...) and now i read that Pussy Galore is gone too...can't be a coincidence..the gods surely work in mysterious ways

 

[njlefty]

Sorry NJL, pessimism is the correct word, other than your pessimism over this, you are on of the most positive people on this site. You have to be to have lived in NJ for an extended period of time!

I'm gonna try and take your advice and be an optimist.

China reported no deaths today from the virus.

 

[VJLUTZ]

Some interesting thoughts on this Shitstorm from a very smart guy. Having read "The Big Short" some years ago, I know who Burry is. As well as being a very shrewd & successful investor, he is also a Medical Doctor.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mi...ble-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

 

[njlefty]

Some interesting thoughts on this Shitstorm from a very smart guy. Having read "The Big Short" some years ago, I know who Burry is. As well as being a very shrewd & successful investor, he is also a Medical Doctor.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mi...ble-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

I agree with him.

 

[feetguy1]

Some interesting thoughts on this Shitstorm from a very smart guy. Having read "The Big Short" some years ago, I know who Burry is. As well as being a very shrewd & successful investor, he is also a Medical Doctor.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mi...ble-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

I don't think I would rely on his medical expertise.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry#Early_life_and_education

 

[Uniquelyme]

Some interesting thoughts on this Shitstorm from a very smart guy. Having read "The Big Short" some years ago, I know who Burry is. As well as being a very shrewd & successful investor, he is also a Medical Doctor.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mi...ble-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

. His 0.2% death rate is wayyyyy off. Economists only care about Economy.

Hes not wrong about we cant keep the country locked down for much longer. Also hes right the government fucked up and shouldve ramped up testing. I agree to shelter the elderly and diabetics and respitory illness as well. However elderly for this virus is 60 yr olds and over.

 

[East Lake II]

OK open it up! Herd immunity. Can the hospitals handle the increased influx of infected that will surely result. Who is going to rush back to high density activities like concerts and ball games. Anyone interested in going to Disneyland? I don’t even want to get on a plane. No wonder the airlines are giving 2 year credit on cancelled flights. No one else wants to get on a plane either. Maybe if the government was on top of this situation and prepared in addition to not lying to us, we wouldn’t be in this situation. We all want to get back to our routine which includes time in AMPs.

 

[charliebrown]

Some interesting thoughts on this Shitstorm from a very smart guy. Having read "The Big Short" some years ago, I know who Burry is. As well as being a very shrewd & successful investor, he is also a Medical Doctor.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mi...ble-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

VJLutz, I disagree with him. If we did not shut down the economy to regulate the number of people going into the hospital, the healthcare system would have overloaded and then the death rate would sky rocket when people stopped getting treated. Seriously, the communist country of China shut down and they have more than enough lives to spare and keep an economy going.

Now, if the guy shorted the markets a month before the collapse, I would give him credit for that but if he shorted the market mid-march, he is really late to the party and anyone who is taking his advice from March 24th on would have been hit pretty hard.

US Government is going to pump out 20% of GDP is money the next few months. Checks, loans, unemployment and many other things. This country really wants to get their asses back to work. I am already seeing the increase in traffic every morning so people are creeping back. You can short the market or individual stocks, I would be scared shit doing it now. If you have any previous interviews that guy has made, Jan/Feb where he was touting people to short the market, please link them.

 

[njlefty]

OK open it up! Herd immunity. Can the hospitals handle the increased influx of infected that will surely result. Who is going to rush back to high density activities like concerts and ball games. Anyone interested in going to Disneyland? I don’t even want to get on a plane. No wonder the airlines are giving 2 year credit on cancelled flights. No one else wants to get on a plane either. Maybe if the government was on top of this situation and prepared in addition to not lying to us, we wouldn’t be in this situation. We all want to get back to our routine which includes time in AMPs.

When the virus first hit, I remember there were mongers here posting the safest place to be was in an AMP.

 

[VJLUTZ]

@charliebrown - I do think there has to be a smarter way of doing this than the wholesale shut down of the economy. I don't think China ever shut down their entire economy. The problem is whoever tries something "innovative" is going to get a lot of heat when people start dying, even if its a marginally higher death rate. Last I read, Sweden is still going the herd immunity route. It will be interesting to see what happens with them.

I also agree with him that, to fight this thing, you need an educated population that follows the rules. Lots of Americans (educated or not) don't believe in or listen to rules. Depending on the situation, that has its plusses and minuses. Right now, its probably a big minus.

 

[Srhsrh]

There's a lot of countries that avoided shutdown. They did that by aggressively chasing down infected people, testing and quarantines. We missed that chance.

None of the big companies I work with are remotely interested in opening right now. It's too dangerous, too hard to keep people safe. The middle course isn't there on this.

 

[njlefty]

The shutdowns are to ramp back pressure on hospitals. Right?

Then after things ease up in hospitals, we end the lockdown and somehow things will be okay?

None of this shit is passing the smell test.

 

[krideynyc]

The shutdowns are to ramp back pressure on hospitals. Right?

Then after things ease up in hospitals, we end the lockdown and somehow things will be okay?

None of this shit is passing the smell test.

Start over. Lockdown was to lessen the pressure on the hospitals. Once this is over, the first wave is done. The virus is still active. There can still be another wave. If that second wave is as bad as this first one, you can be sure of another lockdown. A lot hinges on what is done between the end of the first wave, and keeping the second wave from happening. This cycle continues for all future waves until everyone is either vaccinated or recovered, and can't catch this virus.

Until the next pandemic. We need to be better the next time.

 

[Srhsrh]

Start over. Lockdown was to lessen the pressure on the hospitals. Once this is over, the first wave is done. The virus is still active. There can still be another wave. If that second wave is as bad as this first one, you can be sure of another lockdown. A lot hinges on what is done between the end of the first wave, and keeping the second wave from happening. This cycle continues for all future waves until everyone is either vaccinated or recovered, and can't catch this virus.

Until the next pandemic. We need to be better the next time.

Agree, but it's also going to be that some things are going to change forever.

In China as offices reopen they are restricting employees to 1-2 days per week in the office. It seems sensible to me.

Despite what Trump said last night about restaurants being allowed to reopen with packed close tables, restaurants by me want to reopen with half their tables gone. They won't have the customers anyway. I'd see mask requirements for all service personnel too. We'll be getting massages from masked and gloved spa girls, and getting as excited tomorrow when she removes the mask as we get today when she pops her top. We're just not going back to where we were until everyone except the antivaxxers are vaxed.

 

[njlefty]

The date I heard for a vaccine may be next spring. Maybe.

 

[charliebrown]

@charliebrown - I do think there has to be a smarter way of doing this than the wholesale shut down of the economy. I don't think China ever shut down their entire economy. The problem is whoever tries something "innovative" is going to get a lot of heat when people start dying, even if its a marginally higher death rate. Last I read, Sweden is still going the herd immunity route. It will be interesting to see what happens with them.

I also agree with him that, to fight this thing, you need an educated population that follows the rules. Lots of Americans (educated or not) don't believe in or listen to rules. Depending on the situation, that has its pluses and minuses. Right now, its probably a big minus.

I entirely agree with you that there are amazing things this government could do using their terrorist/civilian surveillance systems. They just don't want us to know how much big brother is watching.

Infrared camara screening, using fitbit/iwatch health metrics. CDC has put out social distancing recommendations a month ago and retail stores have not been driven to make sure customers are following those rules. The only way the curve could have been bent down with such a contagious virus was just a complete shutdown. It has been over three weeks and we as a society still have not decided a good startup plan for society.

I look at my sleep metrics every day as a good upfront indicator how I am going to feel that day. Everyone has a shitty sleep once in awhile, but a pattern of two or three days could be telling me something is wrong. If a large company collectively took everyones sleeping metrics in a town, I am pretty sure they could very quickly assess whether there is a hot spot forming from a residential and or employment location. They could track, test, treat and isolate that person without major disruption to society.

There are research groups trying to collect watch data, but it really should be driven by Google and Apple. They have the resources to do this in a flash.

I guess Google and/or Apple can not take any initiative and ask their existing customers to volunteer for a corona virus watch study without express written approval from the man we shall not name!!!! Harry Potter reference.