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How many places do you think will permanently close?

Ahlungor

Registered Member
Messages: 289
Reviews: 13
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#21
Not to derail this thread - on a separate note, Danny Meyer (Shake Shack, Gramercy Tavern, Blue Smoke) said that 50% or more restaurants will never reopen after all is said and done. There are 660,000 restaurants in the US.
Backed by LGP, USHG will be ok. They’ll be able to weather the storm and potentially be able to tactically expand their portfolio as they see fit. That being said, they will do what it takes to maintain liquidity in the interim. With PE, it’s virtually never putting more equity in, so we’ll see.

As for the 99%+ of US establishments who don’t have owners with deep pockets... agree that this can be tough and it’s going to cause a seismic shift in the industry. I think (personally), for as many of them to survive, it’s the landlords that will also need to take a severe hit (on current leases, or new leases), as that is the component i feel has been far too aggressive over the years... when that is adjusted appropriately down, the establishments will feel less pressure on their margins and have more ability to make it through.
 

Ahlungor

Registered Member
Messages: 289
Reviews: 13
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#22
For sure on the mask wearing and California.
...
I've watched this video, maybe you should,too. This guy is the Dr Fauci of Korea. Subtitles, so you may want a bigger screen...

This was a great video - thanks for sharing. No sensationalism, just simple facts, observations and how he and South Korea has responded.

I agree and note that supply issues were the most important throughout March (ensuring masks were provided to health care professionals as a priority)... however, it’s sad that the Surgeon General’s message had to be that “masks are ineffective” so as to avoid the public run on masks. Sad that the messaging couldn’t have been, “masks are vital. We don’t have enough. So please do not hoard these as those fighting the virus need them now to protect you and your families”... Wishful thinking, I know, but does it not seem that providing these mixed messages only serves to increase the spread.

Hopefully in time, that can be well-known that this is what is required to truly defeat it.

Thank you for sharing that.
 

Levin79

Registered Member
Messages: 680
Reviews: 1
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#23
Not to derail this thread - on a separate note, Danny Meyer (Shake Shack, Gramercy Tavern, Blue Smoke) said that 50% or more restaurants will never reopen after all is said and done. There are 660,000 restaurants in the US.
In
Not to derail this thread - on a separate note, Danny Meyer (Shake Shack, Gramercy Tavern, Blue Smoke) said that 50% or more restaurants will never reopen after all is said and done. There are 660,000 restaurants in the US.
NYC easily 50 percent.
 

Ahlungor

Registered Member
Messages: 289
Reviews: 13
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#24
Can definitely see that in near-term with volumes for dine-in restaurants being severely down. More people will cook at home... those that do offer take-out delivery may fair better.

In smaller markets/cities/suburbs, when the owners (family businesses, generations) own the land/building, I’d expect them to be able to weather the storm far better as the months/years progress. However, the current trendy spot in West Village / SoHo already operating on skinny margins due to rent, halve your volumes... ouch.
 

krideynyc

Registered Member
Messages: 3,231
Reviews: 9
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#25
Not to derail this thread - on a separate note, Danny Meyer (Shake Shack, Gramercy Tavern, Blue Smoke) said that 50% or more restaurants will never reopen after all is said and done. There are 660,000 restaurants in the US.
Even worse if you consider that if they reopen they may need to operate at reduced tables to maintain separation between customers. Their only shot is if take out and delivery makes up the difference.
 

Chief5665

Review Contributor
Messages: 1,495
Reviews: 67
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#26
There is a bill be considered for the assembly that will suspend small business rents for three months. Personally I think this has a small chance of passing, but it would be a game changer for amps. On the other hand, landlords are in a poor position to evict, (Something they are unable to do for three months, thanks to the governor), and in a poor position to try and find a new tenant, so....they should be very open to working with their current tenants on some rent relief.
 

Donkey37

Registered Member
Messages: 110
Reviews: 6
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#27
A few girls have said Midtown for many of the Asians is a last choice for a work location. If they don’t want to work in Flushing or Brooklyn to not be recognized or encounter people from their social life, then Manhattan is the place to be. Full on gfe service or higher volume low service is a decision they make too.

Now with the current environment, some also feel the American, or rather the non-Asian customer, is more likely a virus carrier and are being extremely selective in where they go or who to see. Asians are used to wearing masks to avoid germs and this concept was brand new to Americans.

More likely when things go back to normal, the girls will work where they can. Some houses in LA and SF have way more business than NYC. They’ll follow the money for sure
I dont disagree that there are better places for the girls to work. NYC is not necessarily the best location out there. However, I do think there is more than enough financial opportunity here that there will be plenty of businesses.

The girls in midtown who are just average are earning what, 100k per year probably? At least? And that's not taxed so that the equivalent of a 150k+ salary. All for work that doesn't require a high school degree. There will be girls who want to work there. It's a market that will be filled.
 

Uniquelyme

Review Contributor
Messages: 7,746
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#28
I dont disagree that there are better places for the girls to work. NYC is not necessarily the best location out there. However, I do think there is more than enough financial opportunity here that there will be plenty of businesses.

The girls in midtown who are just average are earning what, 100k per year probably? At least? And that's not taxed so that the equivalent of a 150k+ salary. All for work that doesn't require a high school degree. There will be girls who want to work there. It's a market that will be filled.
These girls know about and love wall st clients if they get em. They know what NYC means to the United States specifically Manhattan.

The weather is what has drawn em to California. There will be amps. Im just going to miss if the girls i like are gone.
 

Howitzer64

Shooting blanks since 57
Messages: 220
Reviews: 1
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#29
I have been wondering it's the spa owners have enough money to pay rent without anyone working. I'll bet you that there are some places that will end up permanently closed because of non-payment of rent, or because the girls have gone home where other places. In New York City, I bet we lose at least one quarter the place is permanently. What do you guys think?
I think in the next 90 days you will know a lot more than now . Many of the amp’s are considered unsavory. As a result landlords actually receive one years rent in advance or at least 6 months security. Sometimes the year in advance is either in cash or through a third party , no bread crumbs to the landlord. If another tenant complains the landlord claims no knowledge of the tenant . Therefore they aren’t going anywhere before their one year is up. That time slot will differ from place to place depending on when the lease started .

The girls who make the AMP’s money might actually get paid something to shelter in place and ride it out . The others go home , if they can , Chinese and Korean can’t due to dual government flight sanctions in or out . Stuck here.The option to work another city or state is not an option . Everyone nationally is on lockdown , money is tight, and for now the biz has come to a grinding halt - even the oldest profession

J&J has a vaccine which will get approval to release in Jan. They are in “risk” production which means they are producing it right now. They wouldn’t do that if it wasn’t a go.

As soon as there is vaccine and treatment released , you will see a total resurgence . Also Dr Granville the technical director for Pandemic the movie has introduced an FDA approved med with a twist that acts as a retro viral meaning it both protects and heals . It only works 8-12 weeks and then requires a booster. US Army is beginning human testing this month . This is scheduled for release in September barring complications.

Will some providers leave - yes some sabbatical some permanent - however there will be new ones , and old ones will come back. Money green the sky is blue.

Hang tight , keep a lot of KY on hand . I also understand from P 411 that many providers are offering chat rooms - if only it came with oculus sensitivity where you could feel it too.

As the great Louis Pasteur once said “ chance favors the prepared mind”

Stay strong , stay safe and think about every move you make if you must venture outdoors .This is an alien invasion , treat it as such . This is no joke
 

hohohokus

Registered Member
Messages: 436
Reviews: 9
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#31
A ton of them will be gone but a ton of new ones will appear. These AMPs are managed by a network of operators with their own suppliers and credit systems and everyone's going to want to get back in business. Meanwhile the real estate market will be fucked, which is good for AMPs that need landlords willing to turn a blind eye and cheap rent.
 

Levin79

Registered Member
Messages: 680
Reviews: 1
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#32
A ton of them will be gone but a ton of new ones will appear. These AMPs are managed by a network of operators with their own suppliers and credit systems and everyone's going to want to get back in business. Meanwhile the real estate market will be fucked, which is good for AMPs that need landlords willing to turn a blind eye and cheap rent.
The question will be will politicians in cities allow street level amps or not?
 

Howitzer64

Shooting blanks since 57
Messages: 220
Reviews: 1
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#33
The question will be will politicians in cities allow street level amps or not?
They have bigger fish to fry. With 50% unemployment looming on NYC , 50% of the restaurants never reopening , lack of revenue , tenants not paying and landlords unable to evict - AMP’s in the aftermath of corona not a priority , unless- as we go back to work and the test and trace dramatically improves, a second resurgence, that is traced backed to an amp or indie in the city would bring the hammer down hard and swift . You would see something 10x worse than the 4/17 raids
 

trash10801

Review Contributor
Messages: 847
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#34
I believe this shutdown was totally avoidable and was in part done deliberately by some sinister types to cause this nasty situation. but
Almost every major country in the world, from China to South Korea to India to most of Western Europe, have come to the conclusion that lockdown is the best option to prevent the consequences of corona getting out of hand. Who are these sinister people and how were they able to so seamless conspire not only across countries but even across political lines where Democratic and Republican governors are encouraging social distancing and stay at home?
 

Howitzer64

Shooting blanks since 57
Messages: 220
Reviews: 1
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#35
Almost every major country in the world, from China to South Korea to India to most of Western Europe, have come to the conclusion that lockdown is the best option to prevent the consequences of corona getting out of hand. Who are these sinister people and how were they able to so seamless conspire not only across countries but even across political lines where Democratic and Republican governors are encouraging social distancing and stay at home?
The only sinister entity here is the source of this bioengineered
virus - China, further exacerbated by the fact that they have the unmitigated gall to charge us top dollar for ventilators mask and PPE in order for us to defend ourselves against their bat virus.
 

krideynyc

Registered Member
Messages: 3,231
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#36
Almost every major country in the world, from China to South Korea to India to most of Western Europe, have come to the conclusion that lockdown is the best option to prevent the consequences of corona getting out of hand.
It's worse than that. Some of the Asian countries were able to manage the first wave of this virus without having to lockdown. Proving that lockdowns are only necessary if the virus was allowed to spread out of control.
 

AutomaticSlim

Shush...
Messages: 6,839
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#37
Almost every major country in the world, from China to South Korea to India to most of Western Europe, have come to the conclusion that lockdown is the best option to prevent the consequences of corona getting out of hand. Who are these sinister people and how were they able to so seamless conspire not only across countries but even across political lines where Democratic and Republican governors are encouraging social distancing and stay at home?
There are powerful people who would like to use this crisis to their advantage.
FDR used the last depression as the opportunity to greatly expand government and create policies that made US citizens dependent on government - a lurch towards socialism. There are current politicians who would like to take this even further.
A former UK PM has mentioned installing a "temporary" global government. There are others as well who would love to see this.
"Never let a crisis go to waste"...

I'm not saying this pandemic isn't bad. It is quite terrible.
But IMO, the coming depression and the governmental/societal changes it will bring will be much worse.
 

Howitzer64

Shooting blanks since 57
Messages: 220
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#38
There are powerful people who would like to use this crisis to their advantage.
FDR used the last depression as the opportunity to greatly expand government and create policies that made US citizens dependent on government - a lurch towards socialism. There are current politicians who would like to take this even further.
A former UK PM has mentioned installing a "temporary" global government. There are others as well who would love to see this.
"Never let a crisis go to waste"...

I'm not saying this pandemic isn't bad. It is quite terrible.
But IMO, the coming depression and the governmental/societal changes it will bring will be much worse.
That’s is projection on your behalf . Neither depression nor true societal change has occurred yet. It will be a while before we shake hands , maybe never. People used to wear hats in the 40’s , mustaches in the 70’s , societal customs are always changing . We will wear face masks but by summer they will come off.

This crisis is not financially systemic, it is pandemic . We have a rough two months - by June you will see cases in NY , LA, New Orleans , drop to zero new cases. No one especially Trump wants Rooseveltism. We do have infrastructure problems they truly do need repair , however we cannot drive an economy our size on that.

If there is any conspiracy theory here it isn’t within the US - it is China who sacrificed their own people by unleashing their bioengineered bat virus in the world. See how the trade war stopped the moment we needed medical supplies ? They are in Italy now “ to help”. Their goal is world domination and they might just pull it off with this third pandemic. The other two in the past were just target practice.

Who knows what the next one is
 

doctorevil

Registered Member
Messages: 29
Reviews: 1
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#39
I have a feeling with so many small businesses going down, there will be a lot of cheap real estate for these places to rent. Landlords will take whatever they can get. All we need are the ladies to work these places...
 

captain.williams.2

Registered Member
Messages: 213
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#40
There are powerful people who would like to use this crisis to their advantage.
FDR used the last depression as the opportunity to greatly expand government and create policies that made US citizens dependent on government - a lurch towards socialism. There are current politicians who would like to take this even further.
A former UK PM has mentioned installing a "temporary" global government. There are others as well who would love to see this.
"Never let a crisis go to waste"...

I'm not saying this pandemic isn't bad. It is quite terrible.
But IMO, the coming depression and the governmental/societal changes it will bring will be much worse.
First step to banning socialism in this country needs to be banning corporate welfare. Until that’s done, the republican bullshit about the evils of socialism is just that—bullshit.
 
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